None of the possible outcomes bode well for holding the House in 2022 or maintaining control of a Senate now equally divided between 50 Democratic-aligned senators and 50 Republicans. To summarize, various data points show a range of possibility for Democratic decline: somewhere between three to 12 percentage points. That represented a nearly four-point improvement for Republicans. The Republican candidate won by 2.6 percentage points - in a state Biden carried by 1.2 points in 2020. In some ways, the contest functionally pitted a generic Democrat against a generic Republican, because even the most engaged voters know little to nothing about candidates for the judiciary. That is erosion, but it’s not as politically catastrophic.Īnd in Pennsylvania, a Supreme Court vacancy was contested with millions of dollars in spending. My colleague Nate Cohn wrote earlier this week in the newsletter about two House special elections in Ohio, where Democrats finished only about three percentage points behind Biden’s performance. The indicators for Democrats are not quite as sour everywhere. “We will win the majority,” Emmer said flatly, “but we’re going to let the voters tell us how big that’s going to be.” “The experts are telling me that any Democrat who sits in a seat Joe Biden won by 10 points or less a year ago is vulnerable,” Emmer said. Now, Emmer said, it’s the reverse: Biden’s disapproval is 10 points higher.Įmmer offered a less hyperbolic version of McCarthy’s prediction of exactly how many Democrats are at risk in 2022. Representative Tom Emmer of Minnesota, who is chairman of the House Republican campaign arm, said in an interview that the N.R.C.C.’s private polling at the start of the year measured Biden’s approval rating as 10 percentage points higher than his disapproval rating. control of the House, compared with 41 percent for Democrats. On Thursday, a poll from Quinnipiac University of registered voters said 46 percent wanted G.O.P. Just how bad is it out there for the Democrats? A Washington Post/ABC News poll last weekend showed Republicans in the strongest position on this measure in the poll’s four-decade history. FiveThirtyEight’s average has swung 4.6 points in the last six months toward the G.O.P. Still, few strategists, Democrat or Republican, believe the Democratic brand’s collapse nationally has been quite that complete and widespread.Īmong campaign insiders, one popular measurement that is closely tracked to gauge the mood of the electorate is the “generic ballot test.” That is when pollsters ask voters whom they would prefer to serve in Congress - a Democrat or a Republican, with no names attached.įor years, Democrats continuously have held an edge in this metric.įor the first time since January 2016, Republicans are now preferred, according to the FiveThirtyEight public polling average. The governor’s race in New Jersey swung toward Republicans by a similar margin. Virginia was one key data point: The election showed a Republican improvement of 12 percentage points, from Biden’s win in the state a year ago by 10 points to Democrats’ loss of the governorship this month by two points. Exactly how far and fast Democratic popularity has fallen is hotly debated in both parties.
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